You don't approach betting on baseball by guesswork or simply by looking at the starting pitchers. Not if you want to turn a profit over the long haul. Oddsmakers look first at starting pitchers. Successful handicappers look at many wagering strategies each day. On Wednesday I had a clean sweep of two games utilizing three different basic betting strategies: Motivation, trades, injured pitchers off the DL, and past performances. Let's take a deeper look.
There are teams that are currently involved in pennant races as teams begin the final stretch of the season, and many teams out of it. Teams like Minnesota and the Dodgers have been hot the last month, with win streaks that got them back in the playoff race. Winning is enjoyable for bettors, of course, and enjoyable for professional athletes. Would you rather show up for work on a winning team that might make the postseason? Or one that is out of it? Teams out of it are more likely to be going through the motions, lacking motivation.
Look what Arizona did this week, trading Shawn Green to the Mets. He's a fine talent, but an expensive one, so the D-Backs sent his contract off to New York. That gives the appearance that the organization might be packing it in.
In my analysis Wednesday I notes, "The Diamondback's playoff aspirations are fading fast as the team has now lost 5 of their last 6 games. To make matters worse they traded Shawn Green in a clear move to start playing their younger players. In our eyes and those of the fans it's obvious that Arizona doesn't feel it can catch the LA Dodgers for the playoffs. That can't be a good sign for Diamondback backers."
The Giants topped the D-Backs, making it 6 losses in 7 games - and a win for myself and my clients. I recall a few weeks ago that Red Sox players were miffed that the front office didn't make any moves at the trading deadline to bolster the team's chances. This didn't sit well with some veteran players who only have a few years left to play and contend for another title, such as Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek. Not making a trade can hurt a team just as dumping a player can signal that the front office might be looking ahead to next year.
Another important wagering angle is to go against pitchers who are making their first start after coming off the DL. Pitching effectively requires practice and timing. Pitchers coming off the DL are often lacking that. That same night I bet against Toronto noting, "We find Toronto and Gustavo Chacin in that situation. Chacin hasn't pitched since June 9th when he lasted just 3 innings against the Tigers. He hasn't faced major league hitting in 10 weeks and is sure to be rusty in his return." He was as Oakland romped, 6-0. Chacin didn't make it out of the 2nd innings, allowing 6 hits, 3 walks and 5 runs!
In both those plays, the teams I backed were on some kind of hot streak. Oakland had won 3 of Esteban Loaiza's last 4 and 6 of his last 9 starts. He had a solid 3.88 career ERA vs the Blue Jays and he has beaten them in 3 of his last 4 starts. As for the Giants against Arizona, the Giants had won 7 of their last 9 and countered with Jason Schmidt. He and his teammates have defeated Arizona an amazing 15 straight times! He has a career 3.19 ERA vs the Diamondbacks. San Francisco has dominated this series winning 34 of 52 meetings including 17 of 24 at home. There are many factors to utilize when examining baseball games, one only has to learn what to look for and how to apply it.
Bryan Leonard is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at [http://www.procappers.com/Bryan_Leonard.htm]
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